Tuesday, February 13, 2007

America's Security Blanket


In the week that saw The Dixie Chicks cleaning up at The Grammy's with their song, "Not Ready to Make Nice," it's probably a good a time as any to look at the likely Republican Challenge to John Edwards and the rest of the Democratic Presidential field.

Forget what anyone else says, John McCain is clearly the man to beat. He’s the one with the organization. And that counts for a whole lot more than what 1,000 people say in a poll conducted by a bunch of bored interns on a slow Friday afternoon.

Both Rudy Giuliani and Mac know that Rudy’s current lead in the polls is all ‘smoke ’n mirrors.’ It exists solely because no-one in the media has had the balls to say that "America's Mayor" was actually something of a failure until 9/11 happened to put him in the wrong place at the right time.

As soon as Rudy hits the Presidential Trail, folks will see that his wooden campaigning style makes John McCain look positively charismatic. And once that happens, the media will feel more comfortable reminding voters that, before 9/11, Rudy was downright unpopular in New York.

True the crime rate fell with Rudy as Mayor. But he'd had an embarrassing divorce from his wife. And he backed off a one-on-one Senate contest with Hillary because he knew he was going to lose.

Once the press and the electorate think of Rudy as a potential President, they will realize that their over-hyped assessment was based on fuzzy memory rather than reality, and the candy floss poll figures will plummet.

The problem is that Mac can’t pick someone as his Veep who’s suffered a complete loss of credibility. Thus, the main purpose of Rudy’s Presidential Campaign will be to get him loads of national exposure, so as to offset the negative effect of his campaigning style and the info coming out of New York.

Don’t get too sidetracked by talk of “The McCain Doctrine,” either. It’s clever lawyer-speak, but it won’t run with Jonny Nascar and Wynette Walmart.

Remember, it was Jonny and Wynette who voted for Bush in 2004, because George wore cowboy boots and brought the oil home. They made the difference then (well…they and the Diebold machines), and they’ll still be the demographic of choice in 2008.

Jonny and Wynette, and their friends down at the VFW, like Mac because he’s ‘real’ military. They know there’s no-one going to come out of the woodwork and suggest that Mac was actually a stooge at the Hanoi Hilton. They know he did ‘real’ time at the hands of his North Vietnamese captors.

And so, Mac and Rudy will form the Republican Ticket in 2008, and together they will counter “The Dreamy Team” (Edwards/Obama) by portraying themselves as “America’s Security Blanket.”

Unless…

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