Saturday, January 13, 2007

The Dreamy Team

So. Hillary will bomb in the Southern Primaries, leaving the field clear for John and Barack.

Barack has some pull with the African-American vote, but not as much as people think.

Ordinary African-Americans would be the first to smack a pundit around the head, and remind him that Caucasians don't just knee-jerk vote Caucasian. They vote for the individual and their policies. So, why should African-Americans be any different?

John has worked long and hard to court Trade Union support. This will be crucial in getting out votes in the Industrial North, and states such as Nevada, which has an important early Primary.

Barack comes out slightly ahead of John on charisma, but John wins hands down on organization.

He has built up a superb effort through two national campaigns, and his work with the Center for Poverty at the University of North Carolina. And at the end of the day, getting out the votes will make the difference.

I predict that John and Barack will do equally well in the South. They both have their differing strengths in the North. But John will tip the balance in places like Florida and the West, and will come out ahead.

Finally, I predict that, for all of this, there will be a hung Democratic Convention in 2008. John will only just pip Barack. And Hillary will still have gathered a large enough stack of delegates that there will be no overall winner on the first ballot.

Hillary, however, will never agree to be a Vice-Presidential Nominee - she has way too much pride. Besides, she has an alternative path to power as the next Democratic Majority Leader in the Senate.

So, the Convention will finally rally around its "Dreamy Team": "Bobby" John and "Baritone" Barack - in that order. Unless...

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