Saturday, January 13, 2007

...The Big Sleeper

Al Gore.

Will he, won't he?

Al is a great big teddy bear of a conundrum. Overweight. Sometimes shaggy. Still wooden and intense. And pretty much always flaky.

Yet, for all of that, ordinary people feel like they know him. They've seen him weather the storms. They sense he is genuine. That he just let's it all hang out. And they understand that he doesn't care whether or not they like his message - so long as they get that it's honest.

I get a headache trying to factor Al into the equation. So, I go outside, clear my head, and wait to see what happens. And one word comes crashing through.


And that's the 2008 Democratic Nomination and Presidential Election right there. If Al wants them, he's got both.

If Al enters the Democratic Primaries, he will win. But I'm not sure that he will enter them. Remember, he backed out in 1988 and in 1992. He really doesn't like the scrum.

If Al doesn't enter the Primaries, and there is a hung Convention between John, Hillary and Barack (as I predict), then frantic delegates will turn to Al to save them.

And if Al is the Democratic Nominee, he will beat whoever the Republicans put up. Period.


Robert D Feinman said...

There are two groups interested in the candidate selection process: the press and the party fathers. It is in the press's interest to keep a dull story alive, that's how they sell papers. So all the "will he won't he" stories are just for that purpose.

So are the stories about favorite sons or dark horse candidates.

It is true that the candidate selection process is a bit more open than previously since many states now have primaries, but as the disappearance of Howard Dean indicates, outsiders still don't have a chance.

Here are the rules:
1. Those who have paid their dues to the party get preferential treatment.
2. Those who can finance their own campaign get support.
3. Those who uphold the status quo while appearing enough of an outsider to attract some of the disaffected are to be favored.

This is how the party ended up with Dukakis and Humphrey (rule 1).

Paying dues means raising money for fellow politicians and favored causes. It also means supporting bills favored by big money donors. At the present time that puts Clinton out in front. If Gore were to run again he would have to attract as much money as Clinton has raised and also overcome the dislike of big business, especially the oil lobby. Not too likely.

Obama and the rest are part of the selling newspapers part of the dynamic. You can participate if you wish, but it's just a sideshow.

Anonymous said...

I would love to see Al Gore run. HANDS DOWN, he's more sincere about his message (the issue of global warming) than JEs is about his (the poor). There's a lot less plastic in his message. Just what, exactly, is so exciting about JEs anyways ?? What, exactly again, has he done? I've asked this same question many times before and have yet to receive an answer from any of his supporters. Seems there's a lot of rhetoric on his part without much to back it up. So, if there are any JE supporters out there, I'd like to know specifically WHY anyone should vote for him. Based on his record, any talk from him about the environment or Iraq or the working class rings hollow to me.

Thank you,
JE neighbor